Politics 101: Thinking Politics In Numbers

In 2014 DPP and APM won with about 400,000 votes against new entrant Chakwera and MCP.

Now, using 2014 and 400,000 as our baseline, it means MCP needs to gain about 500,000 votes to beat DPP. The question is, do you think MCP has gained or would have gained extra votes of AT LEAST 500,000 as of 2019?

For DPP the question is simple; between 2014 and 2019, has the party maintained the margin of 400,000 against MCP or has lost some numbers or won new votes to widen the 400,000 margin?

The candidacy of APM revolves around whether DPP has lost the 400,000 margin or has won new votes to widen the margin with respect to how MCP has played with the same margin.

If you sincerely think that DPP has widened the margin further from MCP then let us maintain APM and I wholeheartedly support that. Share with me your statistics and projections. But if you think DPP has lost some of the 2014 votes or has added too little on the baseline statistics, then only changing candidacy will help to bring back the lost votes and swing more to widen the margin further away from MCP.